Thank you Spammers!

So I'm getting a bunch of spammers on Nacho Lovers. I don't really know why since this is not really a place with a lot of users debating nacho policy (subject for a future post). Anyway, the comments have been rejiggered so that I now moderate comments on posts that are > 5 days old and you have to do the jumbled word thingy. So yeah.

The New 'The Wire' Post

I have a secret. There is no best episode of The Wire. This flies in the face of my post on the Wire. Initially I wrote this post because I had just gotten into the show because of Bill Simmons (who is known primarily as a sportswriter for ESPN but also writes a lot about pop culture and media). He encouraged everyone to watch the show and like a good little Simmons lemming I did. I started during season 4, watched through to the finale, and then Netflixed seasons 1-3. It was brilliant. I'm sorry I didn't watch in order but I'm glad I watched. While most TV is simple entertainment and escape, this was TV with a purpose.

So why am I writing about this now? Well an interesting phenomenon about this blog is that for whatever SEO reason the Wire Post generates the most random hits from Google. When I first started the blog, I wanted to learn how this whole blogging process worked so I also installed some StatCounter html to track where people come to the blog from, what they're reading, etc. In fact, here's a map of my latest user activity (Hello Singapore!):



As I have thought about the phenomenon of the show in general, and the phenomenon of the stats for my blog post in particular it dawned on me: trying to decide a best episode is a monumental exercise in futility. It does the series a grave injustice. You can't just watch one episode and distill the entire essence - you really need to sit down with season 1, episode 1 and continue from there until the finale. And then think about what everything means. A lot. And then come to the realization that the concept of a 'best episode' for something so groundbreaking is really just a myth.

(And thanks to Matthew Yglesias for posting this and giving me a reason/excuse for this post).

No on Prop 8

This blog is pretty nonpolitical but I was just looking at my front-page and an ad for Yes on Prop 8 was on the top. That really pissed me off so I just wanted to go on the record as VEHEMENTLY NO on California Prop 8. It's ludicrous for several reasons but I'm most indignant about the fact that it's a CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT that discriminates against a particular group of people. Here's the opening of the state constitution:

"ARTICLE 1 DECLARATION OF RIGHTS

SECTION 1. All people are by nature free and independent and have inalienable rights. Among these are enjoying and defending life and liberty, acquiring, possessing, and protecting property, and pursuing and obtaining safety, happiness, and privacy."

I'll let Samuel L. tell it like it is:

Trickle Down Economics?

Return of the Real Estate Ranter

The real estate bailout plans slowly gain momentum while the market continues to decline. As I ranted about earlier, I am not a big fan of any of this bailout business. I continue to be outraged that significant steps are being taken without giving thought to their long-term consequences. Don't get me wrong, I am all for making changes to help regulate the system. But how can anyone (be it consumers, investors, mortgage brokers, or bankers) be expected to change long-term behavior if they face no penalties when engaging in inherently risky activities. The conformal loan limits is a good example - I don't disagree that they should be raised. But instead of raising them by almost 100% (from $417,000 to $729000), why not raise them by a more modest amount, say a percentage tied to inflation?

And then comes the data that of all people who own homes, a third don't have a mortgage at all. Of the remaining 2/3 there are about 2% who face foreclosure. We're really not talking about a large percentage of people. But because people had been using their homes to finance consumer spending, and the demand for homes had driven the construction industry, there are significant portions of the economy that are being affected. Here's an interesting post about how a small percentage of people can affect the economy.

So we trudge along. LA Prices are still declining (generally now back to 2005 and even 2004 levels), the conformal loan limits have been raised (most dramatically in California), and the bailout plans are being fleshed out by the powers that be. At some point there will be a confluence where the external factors and my personal situation intersect and I am able to purchase a house. As I wait I vacillate between outrage and fear, wishing that everything could achieve some kind of impossibly peaceful balance. Serenity now, serenity now, serenity now.

Also, Calculated Risk is a really good blog. I just wish I had a firmer grasp of the concepts they talk about.

Real estate rant

One the many subjects that interests me is real estate. I am fascinated by the geography of how people congregate in areas, the way those areas change over time, and the value we ascribe to them. There are elements of sociology, history, race, greed, corruption, and all the wonderful emotions that make up good drama.

I am also interested in economics. Not in the supply-and-demand sense that we all learned in high school, but in the Freakonomics sense of how markets react to people and the unintended consequences of market intervention (I also read Jim Jubak on MSN and particularly liked his explanation of what the hell is going on with the credit market).

In case you haven't heard, we're currently in a housing crisis, which is wrapped up in a credit crisis. There are talks of bailouts, cash infusions, tax breaks, and other plans to right our course (i.e. market intervention). One particularly irritating plan that looks like it is going into effect is that the conformal loan limit is going to be raised. The conformal loan limit basically sets the level of mortgage that the federal government will purchase. Anything above and the loan is called Jumbo, and sits on the open market. Anything lower the federal government will purchase, thereby lowering the interest rate and making everyone feel safe.

So why would that irritate me? Well, for one, there has been a crazy run-up in real estate prices, especially in Southern California where I live. People have been given loans and bought houses that were not justified by their incomes. Much of this was speculation, people thought that prices would always go higher so there was no danger in stretching now, they could sell later for more. People that already owned homes did this as well through refinancing. Well this couldn't go on forever and once prices started to go down (as adjustable rates started resetting and people couldn't afford their payments and had to sell for less than what they bought for), more and more people realized they needed to get out. The psychology of the thing is that if people owe more than they think their house is worth, they're more likely to sell or be foreclosed upon. Once started, the cycle is viscious. People sell for lower prices, values of houses decrease, people start getting foreclosed, values decrease even more, etc.

The thing about a foreclosure is that if it's a conforming loan, the cost is eaten by the government, spread among the 300 million americans, and people don't get as hurt. Well, for the nonconforming loans that were sold as debt instruments the situation is sticky. Those are still owned by banks and they also want a government bailout. The government also wants to bail out people who bought too much and are in over their head.

Why does this piss me off? Because I could have bought any time over the last 3 years but didn't because the econmics didn't work. Now I have to finance (through my taxes) a bailout of either people who bought foolishly or the banks who loaned foolishly, or both. Now I'm not a free-market at all costs conservative. I believe in government social programs for those who can't take care of themselves. But I am against bailing out people who made conscious bad decisions, greedy corporations, or the millionarie CEO's that are crying because they won't be getting yachts for Christmas this year.

I was even irritated enough to post on the LA Land real estate blog on the Times website:

"How's this for a conspiracy: new larger conforming loan limits allow people to refi their large mortgages, the 'bad' mortgages owned by banks and investors are paid off, and the new mortgages are backed by Uncle Sam. When people have trouble paying those new conforming mortgages who's in trouble? Not the banks, who would be off the hook, but you and I, John Q. Taxpayer."

So what's the solution? I don't know - move to Canada? With global warming Vancouver could be the next Los Angeles. Either way I can't complain too much, I do live (rent) near the beach after all. In any event it is a learning opportunity and maybe I'll be able to take advantage of some government subsidies to write more about things that matter, like nachos.

My First Rant

I consider myself a reasonably savvy person and semi-knowledgable in the ways of computers. But getting websites set-up to do stuff is still proving to be quite a bit more time-consuming than I thought. My idea (I'm going to be intentionally vague - kind of like The Spanish Prisoner and "The Process") shouldn't be that hard - A user goes to my homepage, puts in some data into a couple of boxes, the server then gets some data from a database, performs some computations, uses the results and creates a mash-up using another website. Easier said than done.

So far I've registered a domain at Go-Daddy and done some basic front-page type stuff. But learning PHP, which is how I'll likely do the downloading, parsing, calculating, and blah blah blah, has so far been just out of my reach. Then there’s idea #2 which is probably going to require me to use Wordpress for blogging stuff so I’ll have to figure out how that works. I guess I should be glad that right now I’m not looking at setting up my own MySQL database or maintaining a web server and installing Apache and PHP and any other ‘real’ web stuff that is required. It is more than a little surprising I even know that much.

Anyway, someday this site will actually have interesting information about nachos and where to get the best nachos in Los Angeles. I even heard that the nachos at the Underground in Hermosa Beach were good but I remain a little dubious as the report was from my roommate who’s nacho palate is not nearly as discerning as mine.